US midterms: Latest polls point to Democratic gains in House and Senate
Forecasts and betting markets suggest Democrats are poised to take control of the US House, while the Senate remains too close to call.
Illustration: AI-generated image
With Americans voting today in the midterm elections, the latest polling data and prediction markets suggest significant gains for the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report estimates that Democrats will win between 9 and 19 seats in the House of Representatives, which would give them control with approximately 224 to 234 seats.
On 16 October, Cook reclassified 11 House races in favour of Democrats, including Montana’s 1st district, which Donald Trump carried by 12 points in the 2024 presidential election. The same report notes that Republican campaign spending has become more defensive: the main Republican SuperPAC cancelled advertising in four contested districts and refocused resources on 16 others, while Democrats sought additional funds to expand their playing field.
The battle for the Senate is tighter. Cook lists seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of these seats are currently held by Republicans, and Democrats need to win at least four of them while retaining Michigan to take the majority. Prediction markets currently give Democrats a 64% chance of controlling the Senate, according to Polymarket, and 62% according to Kalshi.
Fresh polls from The New York Times and Siena College show Democrats leading in all seven toss-up states, with margins ranging from 11 points in Michigan to just 1 point in Iowa. In Texas, the Democratic candidate is up by 7 points, while Maine shows a 6-point lead. Ohio and Kansas both have 5-point Democratic advantages, and Alaska is at 2 points.
Analysts point to three key factors driving this election: President Trump’s low approval rating, the cost of living, and the immigration debate. A Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump’s approval at 31%, the lowest of his two terms. Half of registered voters say the cost of living is the most important issue determining their vote.
While national polls favour Democrats, the outcome in individual states remains uncertain due to local candidate dynamics, incumbency, and voter turnout. But the data suggests the party is well positioned to make significant gains in both chambers.
