Depopulation and State Abandonment Fuel Extremism, Oxford Study Finds

A five-year study by the University of Oxford has found that depopulation and the withdrawal of state support are contributing to political radicalisation in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Russia.

The project examined communities affected by population decline, low investment and reduced public services in border regions of Latvia, mountainous areas of Armenia, central Ukraine and the Russian Far East, according to the research summary published on Phys.org.

Researchers found that the transition from socialism to capitalism concentrated resources in large cities, leaving many towns and villages economically marginalised. This sense of being abandoned by the state has driven some residents towards radical political alternatives, on both the left and the right. In some communities, people told researchers they saw the restoration of former empires or stronger military power as potential solutions to their economic and social problems.

Emigration is another major factor: the lack of jobs and opportunities pushes many residents to move to Western Europe for a better life. The study notes that while local authorities can take measures to improve quality of life, these are not enough to reverse economic and demographic decline; broader changes in employment, freedom of movement and public services are needed.

Dace Dzenovska, the project coordinator and a specialist in the anthropology of migration at Oxford, said the findings can also help understand "left-behind" communities across Europe. She gave the example of Blackpool in England, where deindustrialisation led to concentrated poverty rather than emigration, asking why the same process produces different outcomes. "By understanding life in other places, anthropology invites us to reflect critically on our own society," she said.

The researchers suggest that the experiences of these communities can explain discontent with authorities and interest in radical political alternatives among people who feel they have no prospects for a better future. Dzenovska added that unlike earlier periods, when struggling communities could benefit from market integration and expanding social protection, today some places are losing access to both investment and state support. "Some people can leave, while others are forced to stay. This makes the current experience of depopulation and abandonment profoundly different from the past," she said.